Algorithms for risk stratification in patients with COVID-19

Authors

Keywords:

COVID-19, risk, nomogram, algorithms, stratification, treatment

Abstract

Introduction: risk prediction and predictive models are known for their usefulness in estimating disease planning and action. The present work has the objective of developing a system of algorithms for risk stratification in the care process of patients with COVID-19.Introducción.
Objective: to develop a system of algorithms for risk stratification in the care process of patients with COVID-19.
Methods: the algorithms were designed based on a predictive model developed in a cohort of 150 patients from the “Manuel Fajardo” Hospital with the diagnosis of COVID-19 in the period from March to June 2020. They were constructed with the results obtained in the different stages of the research and the expert criteria of the authors. It includes the application of the risk prediction nomogram created with the variables that are part of the definitive results of the model.
Results: for the initial evaluation of patients, age, comorbidities, clinical manifestations and the Quick SOFA prognostic scale were taken into account, which define where the patient is admitted. Chest X-ray and the application of the predictive nomogram, which classifies patients as high or low risk, are included in the hospitalization wards. Guidelines are established for the management of high-risk patients and treatment recommendations are made once the alterations in the complementary tests have been determined.
Conclusions: risk stratification algorithms constitute a tool for the treatment of patients with COVID-19 and offer therapeutic interventions that halt disease progression.

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Author Biographies

Carlos Enrique Herrera Cartaya, Hospital Provincial Clínico Quirúrgico Universitario "Arnaldo Milián Castro"

Especialista en I Grado en Medicina General Integral. Especialista en I Grado en Medicina Intensiva y Emergencias. Máster en Urgencias Médicas. Profesor Asistente en la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Villa Clara.

Julio Roberto Betancourt Cervantes, Hospital Militar Clínico Quirúrgico Universitario “Manuel Fajardo Rivero”

Especialista en Cirugía General y Medicina Intensiva. Doctor en Ciencias Médicas.

Agustín Lage Dávila, Centro de Inmunología Molecular

Especialista en Inmunología. Doctor en Ciencias Médicas.

Jorge Eduardo Berrio Águila, Hospital Militar Clínico Quirúrgico Universitario "Manuel Fajardo Rivero"

Especialista en Neurología

Carlos Hidalgo Mesa, Hospital Militar Clínico Quirúrgico Universitario "Manuel Fajardo Rivero"

Especialista en Medicina Interna. Doctor en Ciencias Médicas.

Eligio Eduardo Barreto Fiu, Universidad de Ciencias Médica de Villa Clara

Licenciado en Cibernética Matemática. Máster en Computación Aplicada. Profesor Auxiliar en la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Villa Clara.

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Published

2021-10-19

How to Cite

1.
Herrera Cartaya CE, Betancourt Cervantes JR, Lage Dávila A, Berrio Águila JE, Hidalgo Mesa C, Barreto Fiu EE. Algorithms for risk stratification in patients with COVID-19. Acta Méd Centro [Internet]. 2021 Oct. 19 [cited 2025 Jul. 2];15(4):474-87. Available from: https://revactamedicacentro.sld.cu/index.php/amc/article/view/1550

Issue

Vol. 15 No. 4 (2021): October-December

Section

Original Articles

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